Intra-Afghan-Peace Talks (I): Pakistan’s growing influence in Afghanistan

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Abstract

If one is to believe both those involved as well as relatively distant international observers, Afghanistan is currently witnessing an ‘historic opportunity’ to end an endless war. However, whether a sustainable peace process is feasible depends on numerous factors. One concerns whether neighbouring states will be able to play a constructive role in the process – or whether they will continue to spoil intra-national reconciliation. It is common knowledge that Pakistan has the longest record of interference in the internal affairs of its western neighbour. As discussed in an earlier SADF publication, the Doha peace agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban dated February 29, 2020 offered new opportunities to Pakistan. Ongoing Intra-Afghan Peace Talks (or Negotiations, IAN) between the Taliban (TB) and the Afghan government (GIROA) under President of Ashraf Ghani are constantly facing new challenges. These are leading to slowdowns - if not to an actual stalemate, thus providing Pakistani authorities with additional room to manoeuvre and ultimately extend their leverage over Afghanistan. In fact, Pakistan intensified and even broadened its engagement in Afghanistan through a twofold strategy: continuing its close collaboration with the TB through both military and political-diplomatic means, and reaching out to other political and militant actors within Afghanistan. [...]