The threat of the Taliban’s rising to power in Afghanistan – Where will Pakistan stand?

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Abstract

After months of speculation, the dice is cast: the US will withdraw its remaining combat troops from Afghanistan. Contrary to the vision by some optimistic sections of both the Afghans and the international community, the country is far away from becoming ‘a better place’ to live in. There are no indications yet that the Taliban are interested in the establishment of any other order than that based on their fundamentalist vision of a draconian, Islamist regime. The fact that US troops are pulling out without any political settlement – and that Washington apparently did not work out an immediate Afghan policy – adds to the grim perspective Afghanistan is facing. The lack of clarity on the future of the Afghan government, the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF), and the citizenry remains. There are simmering concerns about the hopelessness of the intra-Afghan peace negotiations and the outbreak of another civil war. The theoretical option of a Taliban-Kabul agreement might be the ‘tactically most acceptable for all parties’; however, it seems unrealistic. The Taliban and other militant Islamist forces, all of which are becoming increasingly stronger and emboldened by the withdrawal of US and NATO, are more likely to pursue a military takeover than to accept a compromise with the Ghani administration. […]