Tottering Taliban – leverage to improve the plight of the Afghan people?

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Abstract

From blaming Washington alone for the dramatic developments in Afghanistan since the US withdrawal, most observers now focus on addressing the plight of the Afghan people and the puzzle of finding an appropriate approach towards the new Taliban government in Kabul. The question over the recognition of the Taliban government seems to dominate international public diplomacy. Lessons from the Afghan imbroglio, the future of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategies by both the US and NATO, the role of regional actors constitute additional topics discussed worldwide. There is no doubt that all these considerations are crucial, as immediate humanitarian support to the Afghan people is of utmost importance. However, one of the most significant puzzles appears to be largely side-lined by analysts: how sustainable is the new Islamic Emirate? And would a tottering Taliban regime provide the international community leverage to pressure on commitments as agreed in the 2020 Doha agreement (and reiterated in latest Taliban statements)? […]